If Russia is Really Behind the Hacks…

…it seems much more sensible to me that the FSB would scan the e-mails for really damaging stuff, show some of what they have to Podesta or Hillary’s people directly (or leave it implied by omission), and then release the rest to Assange, with just enough moderately juicy stuff left in to make it seem moderately interesting. This would give Russia some credible leverage over a Hillary presidency, since they would have already shown their willingness to interfere in American politics, while holding back the goods.

Releasing everything in an attempt to get Trump elected seems odd, especially given that it would have a high chance of failure from the beginning and wouldn’t give them meaningful leverage over him once in office, if it succeeded. It’s not like the FSB doesn’t have enough manpower to scan through all the emails the way Trump supporters now are doing.

On the other hand, if you take this point of view, you have to assume that ramping up US-Russia tensions is in the interest of both Putin and Hillary. Which doesn’t seem all that hard to believe, really.

 

4 thoughts on “If Russia is Really Behind the Hacks…

    1. I don’t see how we could know. Podesta would know. Another alternative would be for them to hack someone else even closer and then let them know, but only release Podesta’s files.
      It just doesn’t make sense to me that you would release everything if you were a country with enough manpower to go through all the files and select out ones of more use. Withholding some info seems much more effective. But what do I know!

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  1. My go to guy (who is an old-school Democrat, for what’s that worth) on intelligence matters is the XX Committee (John Schindler):

    https://20committee.com/2016/10/19/east-west-spywar-heats-up-with-arrest-of-russian-hacker-in-prague/

    There really is no question now as to whether or not Assange is a Russian front. The question remains why? I think John’s answer is the best one — it is in Russia’s long-term interests to have U.S. citizens skeptical of their leaders and/or distrust government institutions. This creates high-level paralysis and helps Russia get away with whatever they want to do on the world stage.

    I’m not a fan of Putin, but I would like to see us someday develop much stronger ties to Russia and the Orthodox East. The trick is doing so while not giving a blank check to power-mad dictators.

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    1. It’s funny that the US has a lot of paralysis in domestic politics but not a lot (not as much as I would like anyways) in foreign policy, where the President has a lot of discretion. I’d like to see the President have to go to Congress more often to approve military actions, for example.

      But I can see this hypothesis being correct- that it’s just an attempt to create more general dysfunction in the US, without any more targeted policy or political goal.

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