Caucus Predictions

I think that current polls are overstating Trump’s support among people who will actually end up voting in the caucuses and primaries. That’s hard to quantify until we actually start seeing vote totals, but I’ll go big and estimate that a person who tells a pollster that he or she is voting for Trump in the Iowa Caucuses is only 2/3 as likely to vote this Monday as someone who tells a pollster that he is voting for another candidate. So, my caucus prediction is the current Huffpost Pollster average of polls, with 1/3 of Trump’s support missing and the rest of the candidates support taken as a percentage of the remainder.

Huffpost Pollster Estimate                                         Spottedtoad Extra-Scientific Estimate

  Donald Trump 32.3% (Predicted Winner) 25
  Ted Cruz 24.3% 29 (Predicted Winner)
  Marco Rubio 13.6% 16
  Ben Carson 8.3% 10
  Jeb Bush 3.9% 5
  Rand Paul 3.7% 4
  Mike Huckabee 2.7% 3
  Chris Christie 2.5% 3
  John Kasich 2.2% 3
  Carly Fiorina 1.5% 2
  Rick Santorum 1.0% 1
  Jim Gilmore 0.0% 0

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